What changed for D-Street while you were sleeping

The market-wide rollovers stood at 72 per cent till Wednesday. Stock futures rollovers stood at 78 per cent compared with an average rollovers of 72 per cent in the last three F&O series.

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The market-wide rollovers stood at 72 per cent till Wednesday. Stock futures rollovers stood at 78 per cent compared with an average rollovers of 72 per cent in the last three F&O series.
NEW DELHI: Markets globally have turned cautious after two days of rally, thanks a delay in US Senate voting on a $2 trillion stimulus package. In India, volatility is set to rise as March futures and options contracts expire today.

Here’s breaking down the pre-market actions.

TRADE SETUP

Singapore trading sets stage for negative start
Nifty futures on the Singapore Exchange traded 68.50 points, or 0.82 per cent, lower at 8,311, indicating a negative start for Dalal Street.


Tech view: Nifty above 5-DEMA, gains ahead
The 50-pack index not only closed above its 5-Day EMA of 8,254, but also bridged the bearish gap in the 8,159-8,178 zone, which analysts say is a positive sign. “A phase of relief rally seems to be unfolding. Once the index sustains above the 8,300 level, one can expect a larger recovery towards 9,000 level,” Shah said.

Market-wide rollovers at 72%
The market-wide rollovers stood at 72 per cent till Wednesday. Stock futures rollovers stood at 78 per cent compared with an average rollovers of 72 per cent in the last three F&O series. Nifty futures rollovers stood at 5 per cent which is a tad lower than the average rollovers of 53 per cent seen in the last three series, an Edelweiss report suggests.

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Asian shares off to cautious start
Asian stock markets made a cautious start on Thursday following two days of rallies. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index rose 1.5 per cent in early trade - its third positive start in as many sessions. Japan's Nikkei fell 2.2 per cent. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.3 per cent.

Oil prices flat in early trade
Oil prices were mixed on Thursday following three days of gains, with the prospect of rapidly dwindling demand due to coronavirus travel bans and lockdowns offsetting hopes a US $2 trillion emergency stimulus will shore up economic activity. WTI crude futures slipped 4 cents, or 0.2 per cent, to $24.45 as of 0018 GMT, while Brent crude futures rose 12 cents, or 0.4 per cent, to $27.51.

US stocks settled mixed
The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 495.64 points, or 2.39 per cent, to 21,200.55. The S&P 500 rose 28.23 points, or 1.15 per cent, to 2,475.56. The Nasdaq Composite Index was down 33.56 points, or 0.45 per cent, to 7,384.30.
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FPIs sell Rs 1,893 crore worth of stocks
Net-net, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) were sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 1,893 crore on Wednesday, data available with NSE suggested. DIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 737.98 crore, data suggests.

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MONEY MARKETS

Rupee: Money markets were shut on Wednesday on account of Gudi Padwa. The rupee on Tuesday gained 26 paise to settled at 75.94 against the US dollar.

10-year bonds: India 10-year bond yield fell 1.19 per cent to 6.30 after trading in 6.28-6.36 range.

Call rates: The overnight call money rate weighted average stood at 4.99 per cent, according to RBI data. It moved in a range of 3.40-5.50 per cent.

HAPPENING TODAY

  • India March Series F&O Expiry
  • ECB Economic Bulletin
  • European Council Video Conference
  • US Initial Jobloss Claims for March
  • BoE Interest Rate Decision
  • BoE Quantitative Easing

MACROS

US stimulus vote delayed
Senate vote on a $2 trillion stimulus package was delayed as key lawmakers in both the Democratic and Republican parties objected to various measures included in the bill. The issue is in the process of being resolved and would likely clear the way for prompt approval of the measure, Senator Lindsey Graham said on Wednesday.

India stimulus package this week
The much-awaited economic stimulus package is likely to be finalised by the end of this week, sources told ET NOW. The government and the Reserve Bank of India are in talks to raise borrowing for the next financial year, sources added. The central bank may be asked to directly buy government bonds, they said.

Virus fight: India works on 3-month plan
The Centre has prepared a graded action plan with a three-week to threemonth horizon to respond to the Covid-19 challenge, which includes staggering financial incentives so as to not exhaust options early in the fight, reports ET. The idea is to be “pre-emptive and early” on the health side, but be “timely and effective” with the fiscal interventions, depending on how the virus spreads in the coming three weeks. A big package is being prepared to help the poor, especially those in the unorganised sector. But this is to be announced in a phased manner.

Fresh lockdown exemptions
The home ministry on Wednesday issued fresh guidelines covering additional people and services who will be exempted from the 21-day lockdown announced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. In the new guidelines, Reserve Bank of India and RBI-regulated financial markets, pay and accounts officers and field officers of the CAG, petroleum products and supply chain and forest staff, people handling cargo operations in airports and railway stations, coal mining activities, officers and staff of resident commissioners based in Delhi and customs clearance at ports, airports and land borders, social welfare department staff for operations of homes for children, disabled, senior citizens, destitute women, widows, pensions service are exempted among others.

Q4 growth seen at 1.5-2.5%: Care
If the 21-day long national lockdown leads to 80 per cent production loss, the economy will take a hit of Rs 35,000-40,000 crore on a daily basis, shaving off Rs 6.3-7.2 lakh crore cumulatively, says Care Ratings. The assessment is based on the FY20 real GDP that is Rs 140-150 lakh crore. Assuming 300 working days in a year, the daily output comes to Rs 45-50,000 crore which can potentially be lost due to the shutdowns, says the report. Based on this, Q4 growth may not be negative but can go down to 1.5-2.5 per cent.

Lockdown to cost India $120 b: Barclays
Pegging the cost of the COVID-19 lockdown at $120 billion (approximately Rs 9 lakh crore) or 4 per cent of the GDP, analysts on Wednesday sharply cut their growth estimates and stressed on the need to announce an economic package. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which is scheduled to announce its first bi-monthly policy review on April 3, is set to deliver a deep rate cuts and it should also be assumed that the fiscal deficit targets will be breached, analysts said. British brokerage Barclays in a note revised down its FY21 growth forecast by 1.7 percentage points to 3.5 per cent.

World Bank, IMF urge debt relief for poor
The International Monetary Fund and World Bank on Wednesday called for governments to put a hold on debt payments from the world's poorest nations so they can battle the coronavirus pandemic. "The World Bank Group and the IMF believe it is imperative at this moment to provide a global sense of relief for developing countries as well as a strong signal to financial markets," the Washington-based development lenders said in a joint statement.

Covid-19 unlikely to disappear in summer
The new coronavirus is unlikely to disappear in summer, the European Union agency for disease control said on Wednesday, in a stark warning that the epidemic could continue when temperatures rise unless measures to hamper it are applied. The notice leaves little room for hopes that SARS-CoV-2, the name of the new virus, could behave as the other four coronaviruses which are endemic in human populations and are usually not detected in summer months.

12.06 lakh new joinees in Jan
Around 12.06 lakh new members joined ESIC-run social security schemes in January 2020 against 12.90 lakh in the previous month, according to the payroll data of the Employees' State Insurance Corporation (ESIC), providing an employment perspective in the formal sector. Gross enrolments of new subscribers with ESIC were 1.49 crore during the entire 2018-19 financial year, the National Statistical Office (NSO) said in a report 'Payroll Reporting in India: An Employment Perspective - January 2020' released on Wednesday.

Indian airlines stare at $3.6b loss in Q1
Indian aviation sector is projected to incur a staggering $3.3-3.6 billion loss in the first quarter of the next financial year if flight services remain grounded till June-end, according to a report. Aviation consultancy CAPA India on Wednesday also said there is a need for a coordinated national aviation industry response to the current situation. India has suspended operation of commercial flights till April 15 as part of larger efforts to prevent spreading of coronavirus infections.
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