Traders’ Diary: Nifty’s range at 11,600-12,100
Technically, with the market surging higher, the underlying trend remains up. Further upsides are likely in the coming week once the immediate resistances of 11,858-11,884 are taken out. Crucial supports to watch for resumption of weakness is at 11,658-11,591
If Nifty trades above 11,859, at least for the first one hour on Monday, it can extend its strength towards 11,955 level. The critical support for short-term traders appears to be in the 11,614-591 range, close to which fresh buying can be initiated with a stop loss below 11,590
The Fibonacci retracement reveals the pullback fell short of the 61.8 per cent retracement mark. The Golden Ratio level, which is at 11,878 in this case, shows a high probability of the next downward leg. Traders can look to initiate fresh short positions over there. On the downside, 11,591 and 11,426 would be key levels to watch out for
Nifty managed to record the highest daily close after making a fresh lifetime high of 12,040 on the results day. The index formed an Inside Bar on the daily chart as it traded inside the wider trading range of results day while a bullish gap-up candle on weekly scale indicated that the bulls are holding a tight grip on the market. Now Nifty has to hold above 11,750 to extend its move towards the 12,000-12,040 zone while support is seen in the 11,666-11,650 zone
Nifty50 after scaling new highs on very high volumes is trying once again to test the immediate highs 12041 which will act as a strong resistance. Nifty50 is likely to be range bound with 12041 as upper resistance and lower support at 11600 or 11400. The market has historically filled the gaps which makes a case that soon Nifty50 will retest the levels of 11400-11600. Traders should take positions only after volatility falls further, currently the whipsaw losses can be witnessed on both sides of the trade, so better to avoid the markets
This landslide victory has raised hopes that the government would take decisive actions to boost business sentiment and that in turn will support the market growth. We feel this feel good factor could extend next week too, provided feeble global cues do not spoil the party. Traders should maintain positive yet cautious approach and focus more on stock selection
The risk taking ability came back as the elections concluded with overwhelming result. The market settled for a board based rally expecting better outlook for the economy in the next 1 to 2 quarter. Volatility index halved to 16.5 in the three days, pushing mid and small caps across the market given attractive valuation. This trend is likely to continue in the near-term and settle for a long-haul expecting the upcoming final budget
CLOSING BELL: Sensex cheers Modi win, rallies 623 pts; Nifty ends at 11,844; HEG, Graphite India rally 12% each
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