Traders’ Diary: Nifty range at 11,500 to 12,000
We see wide trading range for Nifty. Traders must lighten up positions a bit and prepare for roller coaster moves. Aggressive bets ahead of the election outcome are not recommended- Sameet Chavan, Angel Broking
Though with election results on Thursday we believe the rising window pattern made yesterday would have its own importance. Any dip below 10,650-10,680 would be bought at the range till results remain between 11,500-12,100. The lower levels may remain intact though there may be a test of sentiment and patience while sailing in volatility. We suggest traders; use extreme dips to 10,650 or below that to enter in a bullish trend for upside to 12,000
Nifty may remain volatile till election results are declared and if Modi-led govt again comes to power, then uptrend could stay. Along with this, the hopes of rate cut by the RBI in June would also be a key factor. For the rest of the week, FMCG and Banking sector could be strong while auto sector may remain weak. For the rest of this week, Nifty would have resistance at 12,000 while it would have support at 11,420 levels
Tata Motors operating results were below estimates due to margin miss at both JLR and standalone business. The outlook for JLR is challenging in the near term as management expects loss in Q1FY2020 with negative FCF. Management expects domestic business to remain challenging for the next two quarters due to subdued demand in both the PV and CV segment and huge increase in the competitive intensity. Given the near term challenges, we continue to retain neutral view on the stock
While Nifty has corrected, the underlying trend remains up. Further upsides are likely once the immediate resistances of 11,857-11,884 are taken out. Crucial supports to watch for any weakness are at 11,682 and 11,657
Dark Cloud Cover pattern indicates a reversal of prior trend. However, the pattern will be confirmed only, if Nifty closes below 11,708. Given the overall sentiment, we expect high volatility over the next couple of days. The index may find support at 11,550 and 11,620
Notwithstanding the rally, we expect the market to consolidate post the election outcome (even if favourable) as focus would shift back to fundamentals (corporate earnings) and global cues, which has been volatile due to re-escalation of trade tensions between US-China. Further, movement in crude oil prices, which has been gaining momentum post US ended Iran sanction waiver and currency will also provide direction
Profit booking was seen in banking stocks after yesterday's sharp surge. Other sectors such as auto, metal, IT and realty also faced selling. Traders can also book profit in tomorrow’s trading session ahead of the general election results
Market gave up gains after testing a new high as the positive sentiment on exit polls is gradually priced-in. The pre-election rally may continue if the election verdict comes in tandem with exit polls where quality mid & small caps will outperform. Additionally, the downside risk in the market is likely to be protected in the near term supported by extension in economic reforms and pick up in earnings. On the other hand, the global peers are trading in a positive note with signs of ease in trade tensions
CLOSING BELL: Sensex off lifetime high, plunges 383 pts as exit polls euphoria fades; Nifty barely holds 11,700
Reliance topples IOC to become the biggest Indian company
Reliance in the 2018-19 fiscal year that ended March 31, reported a turnover of Rs 6.23 lakh crore. In comparison, IOC posted a turnover of Rs 6.17 lakh crore for the fiscal, according to regulatory filings by the two companies.
It was also the most profitable company in the country with a net profit of more than double that of IOC in FY2019.
Top auto losers
Top IT losers
Biggest bank losers on NSE
Monte Carlo Fashions hits record low on lackluster results
- Shares of Torrent Pharmaceuticals plunged over 7 per cent in morning trade a day after it reported a loss of Rs 152 crore for the quarter ended March 31, 2019.
- The company posted a profit of Rs 228 crore in the same quarter of 2017-18 financial year.
- While exit poll projections have created a lot of euphoria in the market, lifting the benchmark indices to new highs, brokerages say they do not find the risk-reward favourable for equities.
- To be sure, brokerages are not worried about the election outcome, which could at best draw knee-jerk reaction. What they are worried about is continuous earnings downgrades, cautious management commentaries and weakening macro data, which suggest the domestic economy is slowing down.
Sobha Q4 profit jumps 73% to Rs 113.3 crore
The exit poll has thrown up much better numbers for NDA and BJP and which is why we are seeing this rally. But our sense is that now that the market has run up, we are pricing in a best case scenario or the blue sky scenario. There can be some gaps between the actual numbers on 23rd and what has been put out by exit poll. The market does not seem to be pricing that in. I think that from now till 23rd, it definitely makes sense to be cautious in the market and it is not advisable to commit extra funds at this point of time.
A thought from Samir Arora
I love it when some report says BUY because worst seems to be over. Do they mean now it is merely "normal bad" rather that worst possible?— Samir Arora (@Iamsamirarora) 1558418094000
Which is what triggered the monster rally and biggest move in the market in a decade, says Nirmal Jain, Chairman of IIFL Group. “Hopes of a stable government are nudging people to jump into the market right now,” said Jain, a market veteran.
DRL jumps 4% as firm looks to increase R&D expenditure
Earnings recovery is another two years away, if it has not already started but the real number will come through after you have finished 85% of capacity utilisation. What is nice to see in the cycle is nobody is investing. A lot of investors like to see growth, but the problem with growth is it sucks in more capital.
The positive momentum is restricted to largecaps, as 234 stocks across the market caps look strong on technical charts, as suggested by moving average convergence divergence, or MACD.
Bharat Forge drops over 4% on dull earnings prospects
CLSA maintained its sell call on the stock with a target price of Rs 420, highlighting that the company is entering a weak cycle as cyclical pressure in trucks and industrial exports are peaking.
Kotak Securities too maintained a sell recommendation on the stock with a target price of Rs 460 per share, expecting a 6 per cent revenue CAGR over FY2019-21E.
Nomura although has a neutral view on the stock, with a target price to Rs 498 and sees the company entering a slow growth phase.
- Shares of Tata Motors fell 5 per cent in Tuesday's session, a day after the automaker reported a 49 per cent decline in consolidated net profit to Rs 1,108.66 crore for the quarter ended March 31.
- Global brokerage Jefferies maintained buy recommendation on the stock with a target price of Rs 250, highlighting that China turnaround is the key for the company.
- Morgan Stanley, meanwhile, retained equal-weight view on the stock with a target price of Rs 184, underscoring that China and India weakness is dragging on earnings.
- CLSA reaffirmed its sell recommendation on the stock with a target price of Rs 150. The brokerage said that the JLR outlook remains weak while Indian business value has cyclically peaked given an impending truck downcycle.
United Breweries Q4 net profit falls 25.26% to Rs 67.92 crore
- United Breweries reported 25.26 per cent fall in its standalone net profit of Rs 67.92 crore for the fourth quarter ended March 2019.
- The company had posted a net profit of Rs 90.88 crore in the January-March period a year-ago.
- Its total income during the quarter under review was up 5.84 per cent to Rs 3,469.3 crore as against Rs 3,277.85 crore in the corresponding quarter of the previous fiscal.